![]() Moreover, according to Knutson, most models show that climate change brings a slight increase in hurricane wind intensity. As the air continues to warm due to climate change, hurricanes can hold more water vapor, producing more intense rainfall rates in a storm. In a hurricane, spiraling winds draw moist air toward the center, fueling the towering thunderstorms that surround it. The increased moisture in the air leads to more intense rainfall, especially during extreme events. Warmer air temperatures can hold more water vapor. How much water vapor the air can hold is based on its temperature. As surface temperatures rise, more liquid water evaporates from the land and ocean. This process is called “evaporation,” or when a liquid changes to a gas.Ī similar process happens at Earth’s surface. Once the liquid water becomes hot enough, it boils and creates steam (or hot water vapor). Think of heating up a pot of water on the stove. In a warmer world, there is simply more moisture in the air in the form of gaseous water vapor. Scientists have long predicted that climate change would increase extreme rainfall events. This means that hurricanes are likely to cause more intense rain when they come ashore. He notes that “even if hurricanes themselves don’t change, the flooding from storm surge events will be made worse by sea level rise.” In addition, he says models show increases in a hurricane’s rainfall rate by 2100. Tom Knutson, senior scientist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, is a leading scientist on hurricanes and climate change. ![]() Yellow and orange are the warm ocean waters, and blue and white are the hurricane’s tall, cool cloud tops. Thermal (heat) image view of Category 5 Hurricane Maria in 2017, as seen by NASA’s Terra satellite. These include sophisticated global climate models, scientific understanding of how hurricanes form and evolve, and expanding observational records of past hurricane activity. However, important tools are in place to help scientists tackle it. ![]() Thus, trying to determine how climate change will impact hurricanes may seem like an impossible task. Large-scale changes in the climate, such as El Niño and La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, also impact hurricanes over an entire season. With so many moving parts, forecasting a hurricane is hard. If it moves over land, it brings with it a fury of strong wind, drenching rain, dangerous storm surge and sometimes tornadoes. Where a hurricane goes depends mainly on the large-scale weather patterns around it at the time. Once a hurricane forms, scientists shift their focus to where it is going and how strong it will be when it gets there. The same is true for hurricanes: If any of the four main ingredients changes too much, the storm cannot form or will weaken. Change any ingredient too much and the cookie will be too flat, too dry, too crumbly, etc. Just like making a perfect cookie, a hurricane needs all the ingredients for it to grow.
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